Is the May 9, 2017 provincial election, which marked the first minority government in BC since 1952, with seat numbers of 43 for the BC Liberals, 41 for the NDP and three for the Green Party, the big BC shift? With 44 seats required to form the slimmest majority government in BC, the Green Party was handed the balance of power with three seats. With Andrew Weaver’s Green Party agreeing to support John Horgan and the NDP, their alliance has a single seat advantage in the legislature over Christy Clark and the BC Liberals. If a BC Liberal MLA is successfully wooed to be an independent speaker, then the keys to the premier’s office will have been handed to John Horgan. This election, the rise of the Green Party and the subsequent drama represent a dramatic and possibly permanent change in the traditional political landscape of the province.
This Westernmost province, on the far edge of Canada, of vast rugged mountain ranges and coastlines, lakes, rivers, arid plains and old growth forests, has long been elusive to identify, other than by its political polarization and populist tinge. The centre, as W.B. Yeats might say, has trouble holding in British Columbia. If the culture of place can be thought of as a shared understanding of our shared history, shared values and a shared future, an historic cultural divide characterized as a battle between left and right has long dominated and polarized the political landscape, reinforced by politicians with a keen awareness of the value of populist appeals.
The ideological left/right divide is being crosscut with other, evolving value conflicts including populist vs. elite appeals, urban vs. rural dwellers, materialists vs. post-materialists/progressives, a traditional resource extraction vs. a newer service and technology-focused economy, gender divides, generational divides, socio-economic/class divides particularly around housing and affordability, and land use and rights conflicts between labour, environmental, First Nations and business interests. These ever-shifting divisions, together with seismic demographic changes produced by large-scale immigration, particularly from Asia, have profound implications for the evolution of BC political culture and power in the modern era.
It may be that with an increasingly complex and pluralistic society, the old anti-socialist, centre-right “free enterprise” rhetoric which stubbornly drove electoral politics in the province in the past no longer resonates with BC voters. An argument can be made that there are now four rival narratives competing to define BC electoral politics going forward:
1. A neo-liberal narrative personified by Bill Bennett, Gordon Campbell and possibly Kevin Falcon in the future, emphasizing free markets where British Columbians are primarily viewed as consumers, entrepreneurs, workers and tax payers;
2. A globalized, technological and green driven narrative personified by the current Green Party and Andrew Weaver, emphasizing new technologies, the environment and skilled workers where British Columbians are primarily viewed as global, connected, lifelong learners working in the new economy;
3. A progressive, liberal narrative personified by the current New Democratic Party and John Horgan, emphasizing multiculturalism, social justice and government as a socio-economic tool where British Columbians are primarily viewed as citizens defined by their constituent identity groups; and
4. A populist, BC first narrative, personified by the current BC Liberals, W.A.C. Bennett and Christy Clark, emphasizing resource development, large public province-building projects and strong advocacy for BC interests in the Canadian federal system, where British Columbians are primarily seen as family-focused, independent workers, defined by the West.
Social conservative voters don’t fit easily into any of these narratives, but they are an ever-decreasing percentage of the voting public. Social values research as well as polling indicates that Canadians generally are becoming more socially liberal; more at ease with diverse family models, diverse sexual orientations and gender identities. Seat heavy Metro Vancouver in particular has the fewest inhabitants of any Canadian metropolitan area who call themselves Christian. That said, whether social conservatives flock to the neo-liberal or populist, BC first narratives, or find a home with a revived BC Conservative Party, will be a further variable in whether the balance of power shifts permanently left, with vote splitting on the right.
Finally, Mr. Weaver’s requirement that a proportional representation electoral system be imposed as a condition for the support of his three-member caucus for the NDP could be a fundamental change in the state of party competition in the province, with potentially national repercussions. Pursuant to the “Confidence and Supply Agreement between the BC Green Caucus and the BC New Democrat Caucus”, the NDP government plans to hold a referendum on changing the province’s electoral system alongside with the October 2018 municipal elections. Given that BC voters have twice rejected electoral reform in province-wide votes, in 2005 and 2009, the future of such a significant change to the current first-past-the-post electoral system is highly uncertain.
The Green party appears to assume that proportional representation will allow stable, minority governments to function, hopefully defined by commonalities of a greener, more progressive agenda. The changes ahead under a proportional representation system are highly unknown, and could also mean the rise of long-term right-of-centre alliances, for example, a neo-liberal/populist, BC first/social conservative alliance. Just look at the legacy of Stephen Harper’s decade in power balancing such constituent groups under the Conservative tent for reference. Or, BC could become like Italy, with a proportional representation electoral system widely blamed for producing fragile and ineffective governments for years. Whatever happens, what will remain the same is BC politics being novel and exciting.